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The Power Sector

According to data from the Department of Energy, installed and dependable capacity in the Philippines as of January 2016 increased to 18,695.1MW and 15,633MW respectively due to the entry of new power plants. 72.74% is located in Luzon with 54 power plants (13,598.4MW installed, 12,178.5MW dependable), 14.35% in Visayas with 48 power plants (2,683.1MW installed, 2,228.4MW dependable), and 12.91% in Mindanao with 44 power plants (2,413.6MW installed, 2,043.6MW dependable).

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Supply-Demand Outlook 2013-2020

Peak demand is expected to grow at an average rate of 4.52% to 3,431MW by 2030, while the reserve margin requirement is expected to steadily increase up to 337MW over the same period.

abrown power and utilities supply and demand outlook

At the 8% rate of growth projected by the DOE for years 2016-2020, the Visayas region is projected to have continued deficit. On the other hand, Mindanao has a projected demand growth rate of 12.8% for 2016 and 8% for 2017-2020. The region has a supply deficit of 50-110MW. Shortage is projected to continue, with demand to exceed supply starting January 2018 to continue past 2020.

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For 2020, there is about a 600MW shortage in supply that must be addressed. These problems were further exacerbated due to breakdowns in existing power plants, limiting supply even further. Brownouts have extended to 6-8 hours for Cagayan de Oro City and up to 10 hours in Zamboanga.

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As a result of the dearth of power projects between 2006 and 2012, Mindanao seems to be having trouble meeting the current power demand let alone the growth in demand that could be fueled by more development.